PM Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal would leave the UK £70 billion poorer – the equivalent of around £1,100 per person per year – according to The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NEISR) think tank.
Experts at the NEISR decided to assess the economic impact of Johnson’s Brexit proposal agreed with Brussels, following the UK government’s refusal to conduct one themselves.
The think tank claims that even if the UK were to strike a free trade agreement with the EU by January 2021, the country’s GDP would be 3.5% smaller each year than if it remained in the bloc.
This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales.
Arno Hantzsche, an economist at the NIESR, believes that although “a deal would reduce the risk of a disorderly Brexit…we don’t expect there to be a ‘deal dividend’ at all,” with Johnson’s agreement.
In making their assessment, the think-tank assumed UK-EU services would be cut by 60 percent and goods trade reduced by 40 percent as Britain exits the single market and customs union.
The deal can be taken up again by a new government after the December 12 general election, with Johnson likely to push it through parliament if he wins a decent majority.
However, in the event Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn becomes UK prime minister, that deal could be ripped up in favor of a deal that avoids a border in the Irish Sea, enters a customs union with the EU and guarantees that workers’ rights are fully protected.